Firefighter Pay Rise 2027: What to Expect and How to Prepare

What we know now, and what we do not

The last confirmed national award is 3.8% on all NJC basic pay rates and CPD payments from 1 July 2026. The NJC circular confirming it, NJC/2/26, is dated 3 July 2026, and the FBU's consultative ballot concluded on 2 July 2026 with 54% accepting on a 68% turnout. A competent firefighter's basic pay is £40,358 and a development firefighter's £31,539. The full detail is in the 2026 pay rise guide.

What we do not know is anything about 2027. We searched the FBU, LGA and NJC pages for a published 2027 claim, offer or timetable and did not find one as at 30 September 2026. That means every number on this page for 2027 is an illustration built from a percentage we chose, not a forecast of the outcome. If you see a specific 2027 figure quoted as fact elsewhere, ask where it comes from.

The title says 'what to expect' because there is a repeatable process that you can expect, even though the outcome is not knowable. The rest of the guide explains that process, the track record on timing, how to model different outcomes and what to do at your end.

How the NJC pay round works

Firefighter pay for Grey Book staff is agreed by the National Joint Council for Local Authority Fire and Rescue Services, which has an employers' side and an employees' side, the Fire Brigades Union. The circulars carry the names of a joint secretary from each side; the 2026 circular is signed by Sarah Ward and Steve Wright. Brigade managers are covered by a separate body, so this guide is about firefighters, control staff and officers up to area manager.

The round has a recognisable shape. The employees' side sets out what it is seeking, and the LGA has published examples such as the employees' side claim of 29 April 2021. The employers' side responds with an offer, for instance the 2025 offer of 3.2% with the removal of the trainee rate, or the 2026 offer of 3.8%. The FBU then consults its members and its Executive Council decides how to proceed. If the offer is accepted, the joint secretaries sign an NJC circular giving the effective date and the rates, and each service applies it through payroll.

The FBU pay claim and NJC process guide walks through each step and explains why a consultative ballot on an offer is not the same as a statutory ballot for industrial action. It is worth reading if you want the mechanics rather than the dates.

1. Claim or proposal: the employees' side sets out what it is seeking.
2. Offer: the employers' side issues an offer through an employers' circular with the percentage and any other changes.
3. Consultation: the FBU consults members, for example by consultative ballot, and its Executive Council decides how to proceed.
4. Agreement: the joint secretaries sign an NJC circular with the effective date and new rates.
5. Implementation: each fire and rescue service applies the rates through payroll, with arrears back to the effective date where needed.

When past awards were confirmed

The clearest thing you can learn from history is the calendar. The effective date has been 1 July in every year since 2018, but the date the circular was issued has ranged from four months early to eight months late. The table below sets out the years for which a dated circular or settlement page was verified.

The pattern is not a promise. The two 2023 circulars were issued together on 6 March 2023 because the 2022 award had been delayed, and the 2024 and 2025 circulars came about six weeks before 1 July. The 2026 circular arrived two days after the effective date. Whatever 2027 brings, allow for confirmation to fall anywhere from spring to early summer or later, and for the possibility of arrears.

The 2025 and 2026 cycles side by side

The two most recent rounds show how quickly things can move once agreement is reached. In 2025 the employers' offer was 3.2% with the trainee rate deleted, and members were consulted ahead of the union's annual conference with the result expected before the end of May. The circular NJC/3/25 is dated 30 May 2025 and took effect from 1 July. The FBU's General Secretary said at the time that the increase would insulate firefighters from inflation for a year but that inflation-level rises would not be enough in the long run; that is the union's position, not an independent finding.

In 2026 the offer was 3.8%. The FBU's consultative ballot concluded on 2 July 2026, its circular that day recorded 54% for and a 68% turnout, and the NJC circular followed on 3 July. London Fire Brigade's policy, reviewed on 24 July 2026, records the same average 3.8% increase and says it was implemented in July 2026 salaries. Scotland's SFRS adverts show the effect of differing timing: a Watch Commander advert posted on 12 July 2026 used the 2025 watch manager range while a Crew Commander advert posted on 16 August 2026 used the 2026 crew manager range.

The takeaway is that the effective date is fixed at 1 July but the publication, ballot and payroll steps can each add days or weeks. That is why the back pay guide is one of the most read pages on this site each summer.

What could change the shape of a 2027 award

After the 2026 award the FBU said its negotiators would continue detailed engagement through NJC structures to achieve an agreed programme of pay reform. It listed aims of a fairer and more transparent pay system, better opportunities for career progression, greater national consistency and stronger recognition of skills, competence and development. It also said that a revised circular with newly agreed pay bandings would follow. That is the union's account; the content of any new bandings was not public in the sources we reviewed.

Two consequences follow for planning. First, a future award may be more than a single percentage: past awards have also changed terms, such as the 2024 maternity pay improvements and the 2025 deletion of the trainee rate. Second, a change to pay bandings could alter which pay point a person sits on, which no percentage table can capture. We do not know whether or how that will happen, so we do not model it.

What you can do is watch three places: the NJC circulars page, the FBU's circulars and the employers' circulars on the LGA site. A new pay offer, a ballot notice or a revised banding circular would appear there first, and the pay rises history guide records each award as it lands.

What 2%, 3% and 4% would mean in pounds

To make the arithmetic concrete, the table applies three illustrative percentages to competent pay points from the 2026 NJC table in the site's pay data. Each figure follows the circular's rounding rule: annual pay is rounded to the nearest pound first, then the hourly rate is that annual figure divided by 52.143 and then 42, rounded at each step. We tested this rule against all 16 pay points in the 2026 table and it reproduces every published hourly rate.

Read the columns as sensitivity, not forecast. A one point difference in the award is worth about £404 a year to a competent firefighter and about £770 a year to a competent area manager, before tax. The gross monthly uplift is annual pay divided by 12; your take-home change will be lower because of income tax, National Insurance and pension contributions, which you can model with the pay calculator.

Worked example: a competent firefighter under each scenario

Take a competent firefighter on £40,358 basic pay, £18.43 an hour and £27.65 an hour overtime. Under the illustration at 2% the annual figure would become £41,165 and the hourly rate £18.80, so the gross monthly uplift is about £67.25. At 3% it becomes £41,569, £18.98 an hour and about £100.92 a month. At 4% it becomes £41,972, £19.17 an hour and about £134.50 a month.

Overtime is normally paid at time and a half of the hourly rate in the current tables, which would give about £28.20, £28.47 and £28.76 an hour at 2%, 3% and 4%. On-call retainers follow the same percentage: the full retainer is 15% of basic pay under the structure in force since 1 January 2025, so the £6,054 full retainer in 2026 would become about £6,175, £6,235 or £6,296.

Arrears are the other calculation. If a service applied an award three months after 1 July, a 3% award for this firefighter would generate about £302.75 gross in back pay (three times the £100.92 monthly uplift, rounded); six months would be about £605.50. That is illustration arithmetic; your payslip will show what actually applies, and arrears are taxed as pay. The back pay guide explains how to check it.

What a headline rise does not cover

The headline percentage applies to national basic pay rates and CPD payments, but your total pay is more than that. Flexible duty allowances, retainer payments, London weighting, local supplements and overtime rates are affected differently. In 2026 the CPD payments rose 3.8% too, set by a separate circular (NJC/3/26). Your take-home also depends on tax and pension bands rather than on pay alone: a pay rise can move part of your pay into a higher band, and pension contributions in FPS 2015 rise in tiers. The take-home pay guide and pension contributions guide cover both.

It also does not cover everyone in the same way. London Fire Brigade has its own pay scale. Scotland and Northern Ireland advertise NJC-based rates on their own timing. On-call firefighters are paid a retainer as a percentage of basic pay plus activity payments, so a percentage award feeds through to them in a different mix; see on-call firefighter pay. And the pay scales differ by role: see the pay scales 2025 versus 2026 guide for how a real award moved every point.

Finally, a pay award is not the same as pay progression. Moving from development to competent, or from competent A to B, or being promoted, changes your pay independently of the national percentage. The pay progression guide explains those steps.

How to prepare without guessing

The best preparation is to have your own numbers ready so that when a circular arrives you can check it in minutes. Know your role, your pay point, your annual basic pay and your hourly and overtime rates. Keep a recent payslip. Then, when an award is confirmed, apply the circular's rounding rule to your own rate and compare the result with your payslip once your service has implemented it.

Budgeting is the other half. Plan around the pay you have now, and treat any award as extra when it is confirmed rather than spending it in advance. If you are considering a large commitment such as a mortgage, use the current figures; lenders and calculators work from evidence rather than forecasts, and the mortgage readiness tool shows what a lender may look at.

Do not assume arrears will be paid quickly or in the month you expect. If your service has not applied a confirmed award, ask payroll in writing for the date. And if you are thinking of promotion, remember that a promotion step can be worth more than a national percentage, as the promotion calculator shows.

1. Write down your role, stage and current basic pay, hourly rate and overtime rate.
2. Save your latest payslip so you can compare like with like after an award.
3. Watch the NJC, FBU and LGA circulars pages for an offer, ballot or revised circular.
4. When a circular is issued, apply its rounding rule to your own rate and check the effective date.
5. After your service implements it, compare your payslip; ask payroll in writing if the date passes.

Myths about the next pay rise

Myth one: pay awards are announced on a fixed date. The effective date has been 1 July, but the confirming circular has been dated anywhere from March to July. Myth two: the percentage is known in advance. It is agreed through the process above; percentages have ranged from 1.5% to 7% since 2018. Myth three: an award applies automatically on the same day for everyone. Services implement through payroll, and arrears are normal.

Myth four: a headline percentage tells you your take-home change. It does not, because of tax, National Insurance and pension tiers. Myth five: a published pay percentage in the press is an offer. A press estimate, a union aspiration and an agreed circular are different things; only the circular sets pay.