This year: the 2026 award beat inflation
NJC awards take effect on 1 July, so the fair test is the award against prices over the same 12 months. Between July 2025 and July 2026 the CPI index rose from 139.0 to 142.9, an increase of 2.8%. The 3.8% award was therefore about 1.0% ahead of prices, the second real-terms rise in three years after 2024's 4% award against 2.2% inflation.
Prices have kept moving since July. By September 2026 the CPI index stood at 144.1, and the annual rate rose to 3.5%, driven mainly by fuel according to the ONS. Pay stays fixed until the next award, so some of this year's gain is being worn away as the months pass.
Free toolCheck your own role against inflationPick your role and any starting year to see your pay in today's money, the real-terms change and the gap each year.Open the free tool →Every award since 2016, against prices
Looking award by award shows why the long-run picture is negative even when some recent years have been positive. The big losses came in 2022 and 2023, when inflation ran well ahead of the 7% and 5% awards.
| Award year | Pay award | CPI over the year | Real-terms change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1.0% | 0.6% | +0.4% |
| 2017 | 1.0% | 2.6% | −1.6% |
| 2018 | 2.0% | 2.5% | −0.5% |
| 2019 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 2.0% | 1.1% | +0.9% |
| 2021 | 1.5% | 2.0% | −0.5% |
| 2022 | 7.0% | 10.1% | −2.8% |
| 2023 | 5.0% | 6.9% | −1.7% |
| 2024 | 4.0% | 2.2% | +1.8% |
| 2025 | 3.2% | 3.9% | −0.7% |
| 2026 | 3.8% | 2.8% | +1.0% |
CPI change is July to July (ONS series D7BT), because NJC awards take effect on 1 July. Real-terms change compares the award with prices over the same year. Calculated with the site's pay history model.
The long view: still behind 2010
Over a longer period the losses add up. Since 2010, pay for every national role has fallen by the same 10.6% in real terms on CPI, because awards have been applied as the same percentage to every pay point. In cash terms the gap is bigger for more senior roles.
| Role | Pay in 2010 | Pay now (July 2026) | If it had matched CPI | Gap a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firefighter (competent) | £28,199 | £40,358 | £45,125 | £4,767 |
| Crew Manager (competent) | £31,263 | £44,742 | £50,028 | £5,286 |
| Watch Manager (competent B) | £34,961 | £50,034 | £55,945 | £5,911 |
| Station Manager (competent B) | £40,109 | £57,402 | £64,183 | £6,781 |
July prices, ONS CPI index D7BT. Real-terms change since 2010: −10.6% for each role; since 2020: −3.0%. Against RPI the fall since 2010 is −23.6%.
What the latest inflation means for the 2027 pay round
The next NJC award would normally take effect from 1 July 2027. No claim or offer had been published when we checked in October 2026. Inflation at 3.5% in September is the starting point for any discussion: an award below the rate of inflation over the year would mean another real-terms fall, and one above it would close a little of the gap since 2010. Our guide to the NJC pay process explains how claims, offers and ballots work.
If an award is agreed late, it is normally backdated to 1 July, so the months at the old rate are paid as arrears. The back pay calculator shows what a late award is worth on your role.
Check your own numbers
The tables above use national basic pay. Your own position depends on your role, when you joined and any local pay. The free pay versus inflation tool shows any role from any starting year in today's money. The pay calculator turns the current rates into take-home pay after tax, NI and pension. For a deeper look, the Pay History & Back-Pay Pack compares roles side by side, follows your own career path and models back pay from a late award.
Free toolHas your pay kept up with inflation?Your role, any starting year, CPI or RPI: the real-terms change and the gap in pounds.Check my pay →Frequently asked questions
Did the 2026 firefighter pay award beat inflation?
Yes. The 3.8% award from 1 July 2026 compares with CPI of 2.8% between July 2025 and July 2026, a real-terms rise of about 1%.
How much have firefighters lost to inflation since 2010?
On CPI, a competent firefighter's basic pay is 10.6% lower in real terms than in 2010: £40,358 now against about £45,125 had it kept pace with prices, a gap of £4,767 a year. On RPI the fall is 23.6%.
What is the current rate of inflation?
The ONS published CPI of 3.5% for the 12 months to September 2026 on 21 October 2026, up from 3.1% in August. RPI was 3.9%.
When is the next firefighter pay rise?
NJC awards normally take effect from 1 July, so the next would be from 1 July 2027. No claim or offer had been published when we checked in October 2026.